The other element to content with will be the southeaster U.S. The problem with guidance is that it doesn't always handle MJO related activity well (tropical convection can wreak havoc on model guidance) so it's tough to say if these longer range pattern estimates will verify. All this high-latitude blocking produces a -AO (arctic oscillation) phase, which can fence in cold and up our odds for snowfall. A little more buckling of the pattern with ridging over Greenland as well as Alaska. Outside of the MJO, there are other factors that point to colder and stormier times heading into mid-December. This will play a major role in our cold and snow chances in the 7-21 day range from now. If it stays in the middle to higher end of forecasts, we could be looking at a warm setup. If it stays on the weaker side, it might be overriden by other pattern drivers. Exactly how strong this becomes will be a key player for us in December.
Guidance is indicating a pulse of the MJO traveling in phases 4-5-6 coming up. When we get into winter, phases 4-5-6 often produce mild conditions for the eastern U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a measure of convective activity from the western Pacific to the Indian sub-continent. How about after that? There are some very mixed signals. Some chilly dips but no sustained/stormy cold weather. In fact, we should average out a little warmer than average over the next 7 days. But both situations are much too warm for any snow potential. We'll see what can attempt to move through next Wednesday (if anything) or if this coming Saturday evening will come close enough for some rain. There are barely any chances for precipitation, let alone snow, through the end of next week. It's a pretty tranquil pattern that has set up shop to wind down November and kick off December. What can we say about the weeks ahead? Well let's start with the rest of the month. Amazingly, that *has* happened 17 times, dating back to the late 1800s! The rest of us chose dates between the two, with no one taking the pessimistic route of a post-January 1st first snow. Pamela, perhaps a hopeless romantic or a masochist and wants to work the holiday, picked Christmas Day. Barry, ever the snowhound, had the earliest pick (sorry Barry, already can cross you off the list this time).
Each member of the WBZ team came up with their call for the first 1" at Logan Airport, where official observations for the city are taken. On average, we get a little over an inch in Boston and several inches across central Massachusetts.īack in the first week of the month, we took friendly bets for our office snow pool. It's a fringe winter month so there really isn't a 'bank on it' solution to snowflakes this time of year. The cold hasn't been overly productive, but that's pretty typical for this time of year. November has been on the chilly side for us in New England, but the only spots where snow has really been able to add up are the higher elevations of northern New England and the Berkshires. As you huddle around the feast this Thanksgiving, how about some food for thought? When will the first snowfall arrive in the Boston area? Some pass on this entree, while others are eager to dig in to the winter smorgasbord.
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